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talisman comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong
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I haven't read Jaynes's work on the subject, so I couldn't say. However, if he thinks that equal probabilities mean equal obligation to be surprised, I disagree with him. It's easy to do things that are spectacularly unlikely - flip through a shuffled deck of cards to see a given sequence, for instance - that do not, and should not, surprise you at all.
That's because you didn't specify the sequence ahead of time, right?
Writing down a sequence ahead of time makes it more interesting when it turns up, not more unlikely. Given the possibility of cheating, it might make it more likely.