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andrewc comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong
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I haven't read Jaynes's work on the subject, so I couldn't say. However, if he thinks that equal probabilities mean equal obligation to be surprised, I disagree with him. It's easy to do things that are spectacularly unlikely - flip through a shuffled deck of cards to see a given sequence, for instance - that do not, and should not, surprise you at all.
I don't mean to sound gushing but Jayne's writing on probability theory is the clearest, most grounded, and most entertaining material you will ever read on the subject. Even better than that weird AI dude. Seriously it's like trying to discuss the apocalypse without reading Revelations...