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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong
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This is not how AIXI [*] works. It considers all possible programs at the start, with some probability. The simplest program that fits the data is not the only one it considers; it just gets most of the probability mass. So, from the start, it will give some tiny probability to a hypothesis that the beads will spell War and Peace is morse code. Only when this hypothesis is falsified by the data, it will drop out of race.
[*] M. Hutter (2003). `A Gentle Introduction to The Universal Algorithmic Agent AIXI'. Tech. rep. [abstract/download]