Vladimir_Nesov comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong

17 Post author: Alicorn 04 May 2009 06:59PM

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Comment author: saturn 05 May 2009 06:36:24AM 0 points [-]

I may, however, declare (or even bet on) a probability that I update downwards when given new information.

And it's always .5, I hope.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 05 May 2009 10:10:05AM 0 points [-]

No, it's not. (You either win the lottery, or you don't.)