orthonormal comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong

17 Post author: Alicorn 04 May 2009 06:59PM

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Comment author: orthonormal 05 May 2009 08:58:42PM 1 point [-]

but if I either choose a double-head or double-tail coin and flip that 100 times,

To clarify: if you know Guy chose either a double-head or double-tail coin, but you have no idea which, then you should assign 50% to heads on the first flip, then either 0% or 100% to heads after, since you'll the know which one it was.

It's been linked too often already in this thread, but the example in Priors as Mathematical Objects neatly demonstrates how a prior is more than just a probability distribution, and how Simetrical's question doesn't lead to paradox.