loqi comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong

17 Post author: Alicorn 04 May 2009 06:59PM

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Comment author: loqi 05 May 2009 11:36:10PM 3 points [-]

It's not like you have any information. Assuming you don't think Omega is out to deliberately screw with you

These are contradictory assumptions. I have no information. I have no idea what Omega is out to do. The whole point of invoking Omega is to obliterate meaningful priors. I'm with byrnema here, probabilities are a tool for making maximally effective use of information. Without any such information, the only correct answer to "what is your probability" is "I don't have one".