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timtyler comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong
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Comments (127)
That's an important information, and one that wasn't included in the specification of the problem - hence some people in the comments arguing that 0.5 may not be that stupid.
Would you increase or decrease the probability on the basis of this information?
Decrease - wouldn't you?
I'm not sure what I would do - probably ask for more information about this Omega fellow.