This post confused me enormously. I thought I must be missing something, but reading over the comments, this seems to be true for virtually all readers.

What exactly do you mean by "bead jar guess"? "Surprise"? "Actual probability"? Are you making a new point or explaining something existing? Are you purposely being obscure "to make us think"?

I propose replacing this entire post with the following text:

Hey everybody! Read E.T. Jaynes's Probability Theory: The Logic Of Science!