While browsing some of the websites on cryonics, I've come across this page, a spreadsheet which performs a quick analysis of the odds of a successful cryonic revival. It allows a user to enter their estimates of various events happening in a given period, such as the failure of the cryonics facility due to various causes, when revival technology will be developed, and so forth. (There's also a more advanced calculator here, which I'm not going to worry about at the moment.)
What are your best estimates of the relevant factors?
(Or, in case it might save a step: my own current age is 35, and my current estimate of my mean time of death across all my futures is when I'm 78. Given that, what is your best estimate of the probability that I'll be successfully revived from cryonic suspension?)
From trying to design a calculator and testing it on people, I found that the parameter that is the hardest to model and yet that has the most sensitivity for personal opinions on the subject is the "value of post revival life". Some people seem to value life at "infinity" and others are certain that life will be completely and totally awesome post revival and hence be worth trillions of dollars (and even 0.5% of a trillion is a lot). Some people I've talked with seem to think it would have negative value?
If anyone knows of solid techniques for rigorously drilling into the valuation of a credence goods like "life experiences in the far future as one gets ridiculously old", I'd be really interested in hearing about the technique or how you think it might be applied to valuing post-resuscitation life in the somewhat distant future.