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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Skill: The Map is Not the Territory - Less Wrong
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I've seen it before used in the treatment of pascals wager: Believe in god x god exists = heavan, believe in god x god not exists = wasted life.... etc.
Can't cite specific texts, but it was definately pre-LW for me, from people who had not heard of LW.
Ah yes, sorry. Payoff matrices are ancient; the Tarski Method is visualizing one in response to a temptation to rationalize. Edited.
That sounds like a good idea in two ways: It gives you practice at visualizing the alternatives (which is always good if it can be honed to greater availability/reflex by practice), and by choosing those specific situations, you are automatically providing real-world examples in which to apply it; that way, it is a practical skill.