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Manfred comments on Skill: The Map is Not the Territory - Less Wrong
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I've seen it before used in the treatment of pascals wager: Believe in god x god exists = heavan, believe in god x god not exists = wasted life.... etc.
Can't cite specific texts, but it was definately pre-LW for me, from people who had not heard of LW.
The intent seems different there, and that shapes the details. Pascal's wager isn't about how you act because of your beliefs - the belief is considered to be the action, and the outcomes are declared by fiat (or perhaps, fide) at the start of the problem, rather than modeled in your head as part of the purpose of the exercise.