Error comments on Skill: The Map is Not the Territory - Less Wrong
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Comments (174)
I thought about this before reading the rest of the post, and came up with: "When I find myself surprised by something." Surprise may indicate that something improbable has happened, but may also indicate an error in my estimation of what's probable. Given that the observation appears improbable to begin with (or I wouldn't be surprised), I should suspect the map first.