Psychohistorian comments on How Not to be Stupid: Brewing a Nice Cup of Utilitea - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (18)
The whole von Neumann-Morgenstern edifice (which is roughly what Psy-Kosh seems to be reconstructing in a roundabout way) is axiomatic. That doesn't make it worthless.
Well, yes. You can derive X from the assumption that X is true, but that doesn't seem very productive. (I didn't think Psy-Kosh claimed, or needs to claim (yet), that all utils are measured on the same scale, but I could be wrong. Not least because that statement could mean a variety of different things, and I'm not sure which one you intend.)
Only some preference orderings can be represented by a real-valued utility functions. Lexicographic preferences, for example, cannot. Nor can preferences which are, in a particular sense, inconsistent (e.g. cyclic preferences).
My sense is that Psy-Kosh is trying to establish something like a cardinally measurable utility function, on the basis of preferences over gambles. This is basically what vNM did, but (a) as far as I can tell, they imposed more structure on the preferences; (b) they didn't manage to do it without using probabilities; and (c) there's a debate about the precise nature of the "cardinality" they established. The standard position, as I understand it, is that they actually didn't establish cardinality, just something that looks kind of like it.
Intuitively, the problem with the claim that utility "indices actually correspond[] in a meaningful way to how much you prefer one thing to another" is that you could be risk-averse, or risk-loving with respect to welfare, and that would break the correspondence. (Put another way: the indices correspond to how much you prefer one thing to another adjusted for risk - not how much you prefer one thing to another simpliciter.)
My criticism may be more of the writing than the concept. Once you establish that utilities obey a >=< relationship with one another, all these properties seem to flow rather cleanly and easily. If there's one thing I've learned from philosophy, it's that you should always be wary of someone who uses a thousand words when a hundred will do.
The properties are interesting and useful, it just seems that the explanation of them is being dragged out to make the process look both more complex and more "objective" than it really is, and that's what I'm wary of.