Seems reasonable to me that it would be useful to have somewhere on LW a derivation of decision theory, an answer to "why this math rather than some other?"

I wanted to base it on dutch book/vulnerability arguments, but then I kept finding things I wanted to generalize and so on. So I decided to do a derivation in that spirit, but with all the things filled in that I felt I had needed to fill in for myself. It's more "here's what I needed to think through to really satisfy myself with this." But yeah, I'm just going for ordinary Bayesian decision theory and epistemic probabilities. That's all. I'm not trying to do anything really novel here.

I'm not so much axiomatizing as much as working from the "don't automatically lose" rule.