thomblake comments on Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1) - Less Wrong

33 Post author: Morendil 09 October 2012 03:49PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 10 October 2012 09:30:44AM 1 point [-]

It depends on whether you're using probabilities epistemically or instrumentally. Changing the probability of A from 90% to 95% doesn't affect your expected utility any more than changing it from 50% to 55%.

Comment author: thomblake 10 October 2012 01:49:36PM 1 point [-]

Yeah, that's why I said "For most purposes".