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chaosmosis comments on Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1) - Less Wrong
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Ratio of true statements to false ones: low. Probability TraderJoe wants to make TheOtherDave look foolish: moderate, slightly on the higher end. Ratio of the probability that giving an obviously false statement an answer of relatively high probability would make TheOtherDave look foolish to the probability that giving an obviously true statement a relatively low probability would make TheOtherDave look foolish: moderately high. Probability that the statement is neither true nor false: low.
Conclusion: أنا من (أمريك is most likely false.
PBEERPG.