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CronoDAS comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong
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There is exactly one such intervention that has been shown to cause persistent weight loss after the intervention period is over. (Starvation also causes weight loss, eventually, but only during the intervention period.)
If my stomach doesn't grow back to full size, sounds like an ongoing intervention to me! :D (Also, since people don't exclude weight loss methods that are long-term plans, I'd bet there are some interesting things that have been shown to work as long-term interventions.)
Nope. There haven't been any that have been shown to work.
I'm told that 5% of dieters keep off the weight long-term. (Interestingly, this is also the success rate of quitting smoking.) Unless 5% of people who don't try to lose weight also lose weight and keep it off, sounds like diets work, just not very well.
Is there a standard abbreviation for "I would like to see this testable prediction tested"?
You would have to compare to how many non-dieters lose weight and keep it off long-term.
5% is a very small effect. Not only would you want to see the control group, but you'd need a huge sample size to get anywhere.
Chronic cocaine use. Let's start with the fun stuff and go from there.
Let me rephrase: There is no such intervention that is considered less dangerous than being obese.
I dunno, I feel like you're just patching. Universal statements are always so fragile. Did that drug that made you poop out the fat you ate lead to weight loss? It looks like it's been shown to be effective for at least 2 years. How about appetite suppressants (safer ones than cocaine, that is)? The studies seem to be over shorter time periods, but is that because of safety/effectivess reasons, or just habit?
Well, I was specifically thinking of that one drug that was approved not all that long ago but was pulled off the market because it caused heart problems.
What about a small amount of mild stimulant use?
I dunno. The FDA did approve a couple of drugs this year, but they might only be intended for short-term use.
I know that the antidepressant Wellbutrin, which is a stimulant, has been associated with a small amount of weight loss over a few months, though I'm not sure if this has been shown to stay for longer. That's an off-label use though.
I'd guess that any stimulant would show weight loss in the short-term. Is there some reason this wouldn't stay long-term?
There are a lot of drugs that people develop tolerances to when used over long periods of time (the body's various feedback mechanisms recalibrate themselves to compensate for the drug's presence), but I can't say with any authority that this applies to mild stimulant use and weight loss.
I'm pretty sure tolerance to caffeine is a thing, judging from what I see on other people. (I usually abstain from drinking anything with caffeine at least on weekends and holidays to prevent that from happening to me.)