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MixedNuts comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong
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I'm told that 5% of dieters keep off the weight long-term. (Interestingly, this is also the success rate of quitting smoking.) Unless 5% of people who don't try to lose weight also lose weight and keep it off, sounds like diets work, just not very well.
Is there a standard abbreviation for "I would like to see this testable prediction tested"?
You would have to compare to how many non-dieters lose weight and keep it off long-term.
5% is a very small effect. Not only would you want to see the control group, but you'd need a huge sample size to get anywhere.