wedrifid comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong
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I'd be more suspicious of reports that exercise didn't change body composition than that it did. That's how exercise tends to work for most people. I'd be more skeptical of the initial claim for net weight loss, at least if it wasn't qualified--- that is usually not what I would expect in the short term.
I'd be more suspicious if the 'unobservable' was a little more difficult to verify.