army1987 comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong
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A person that I trust to be truthful, and who has done research on this topic, has pointed out to me that muscle has a higher density than fat. So if you experience, simultaneously, both an increase in muscle and a decrease in fat, then your weight may very well not change (or even increase, depending on the amount of muscle).
The same person tells me that exercise both increases muscle and decreases fat.
Yeah. After starting exercising regularly, lots of people who hadn't seen me in a while thought I had lost weight, even if I had actually gained some.