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Yvain comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong
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Yeah, I didn't even mind the topic, but I thought this particular sentence was pretty sketchy:
This sounds like a Fully General Mockery of any claim that humans can ever affect outcomes. For example:
And selectively applied Fully General Mockeries seem pretty Dark Artsy.
Of course not! The real reason drinkers cause more accidents is that low-conscientiousness people are both more likely to drink before driving and more likely to drive recklessly. (The impairment of reflexes due to alcohol does itself have an effect, but it's not much larger than that due to e.g. sleep deprivation.) If a high-conscientiousness person was randomly assigned to the “drunk driving” condition, they would drive extra cautiously to compensate for their impairment. ;-)
(I'm exaggerating for comical effect, but I do believe a weaker version of this.)