army1987 comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong
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It seems clear to me that it is a very bad example. I find that consistently the worst part of Eliezer's non-fiction writing is that he fails to separate contentious claims from writings on unrelated subjects. Moreover, he usually discards the traditional view as ridiculous rather than admitting that its incorrectness is extremely non-obvious. He goes so far in this piece as to give the standard view a straw-man name and to state only the most laughable of its proponents' justifications. This mars an otherwise excellent piece and I am unwilling to recommend this article to those who are not already reading LW.
“Extremely non-obvious”? Have you looked at how many calories one hour of exercise burns, and compared that to how many calories foodstuffs common in the First World contain?
I agree that focusing on input has far higher returns than focusing on output. Simple calorie comparison predicts it, and in my personal experience I've noted small appearance and weight changes after changes in exercise level and large appearance and weight changes after changes in intake level. That said, the traditional view- "eat less and exercise more"- has the direction of causation mostly right for both interventions and to represent it as just "exercise more" seems mistaken.