ThrustVectoring comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong

61 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 October 2012 09:49PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 13 October 2012 10:09:09AM *  20 points [-]

in the virtue theory of traffic, drinking alcohol actually causes accidents due to divine punishment for the sin of intemperance

Of course not! The real reason drinkers cause more accidents is that low-conscientiousness people are both more likely to drink before driving and more likely to drive recklessly. (The impairment of reflexes due to alcohol does itself have an effect, but it's not much larger than that due to e.g. sleep deprivation.) If a high-conscientiousness person was randomly assigned to the “drunk driving” condition, they would drive extra cautiously to compensate for their impairment. ;-)

(I'm exaggerating for comical effect, but I do believe a weaker version of this.)