Caspian comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong

61 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 October 2012 09:49PM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 14 October 2012 06:15:31PM 2 points [-]

but will also reduce the amount of exercise people do (U->E) by an amount where the effect of the reduced exercise on weight exactly cancels out the direct weight reduction.

It's unlikely that two effects will randomly cancel out unless the situation is the result of some optimizing process. This is the case in Milton Friedman's thermostat but doesn't appear to be the case in your example.

Comment author: Caspian 15 October 2012 12:35:52PM 0 points [-]

I had meant to suggest some sort of unintelligent feedback system. Not coincidence, but also not an intelligent optimisation, so still not an exact parallel to his thermostat.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 16 October 2012 03:55:59AM 0 points [-]

The thermostat was created by an intelligent human.

I never said the optimizing process had to be that intelligent, i.e., the blind-idiot-god counts.