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Decius comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong
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" [1] Somewhat to my own shame, I must admit to ignoring my own observations in this department - even after I saw no discernible effect on my weight or my musculature from aerobic exercise and strength training 2 hours a day 3 times a week, I didn't really start believing that the virtue theory of metabolism was wrong [2] until after other people had started the skeptical dogpile."
I am extremely skeptical of this portion, it would imply that Eliezer's body functions differently then literally every other person (myself included) I have ever known to make a serious attempt at working out.. 2 Hours 3 times a week? How long did you try this?
Does you actually believe in the virtue theory of metabolism, or did you believe in the conservation of energy between ATP synthesized thorough the breakdown of food nutrients being used to synthesize lipids?
There are additional confounding factors, including genetics, heredity separately from genetics (many organelles are not coded in DNA), and environmental factor which cause hormone fluctuations. Seth Roberts' studies as linked show variations in appetite which cause variations in body fat, and provide a clear theory on a specific mechanism by which appetite can be intentionally altered.