IlyaShpitser comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong

61 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 October 2012 09:49PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (274)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 31 October 2012 07:02:23PM *  1 point [-]

That's exactly right. The fact that for treatment T, and outcome Y, there is generally an unobserved common cause U of T and Y is in some sense the fundamental problem of causal inference. The way out is either:

(a) Make parametric assumptions and find instrumental variables (econometrics, mendelian randomization)

(b) Try to observe U (epidemiology, etc.)

(c) Randomize T (statistics, empirical science)

There are some other lesser known ways as well:

(d) Find an unconfounded mediator W that intercepts all causal influence from T to Y:

T -> W -> Y

Then use the "front-door criterion."