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jslocum comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong
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Here is a spreadsheet with all the numbers for the Exercise example all crunched and the graph reasoning explained in a slightly different manner:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArkrB_7bUPTNdGhXbFd3SkxWUV9ONWdmVk9DcVRFMGc&usp=sharing