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Cosmos comments on No Universal Probability Space - Less Wrong
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This sounds just like something I've always wondered about: the percentages they give in weather reports, for likelihood of rain. Does '30% chance of rain' mean that they estimate a 30% chance of getting any rain, or that they think it'll rain for 30% of the day, or what?
I thought this was based off of historical data, although I don't remember the source and could easily be wrong.
If I am not wrong, it should be interpreted as: "It has rained 30% of the time we have had similar weather conditions in the past."