thomblake comments on No Universal Probability Space - Less Wrong

0 Post author: gworley 06 May 2009 02:58AM

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Comment author: thomblake 07 May 2009 09:48:32PM 1 point [-]

Yes, it means 30% chance of any rain today, and as Cosmos points out it's based primarily on historical data: 30% of historical situations significantly like this have head rain. And since the estimates update based on new data, they're practically tautologous.

I don't have a reference for that though.