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thomblake comments on No Universal Probability Space - Less Wrong
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This sounds just like something I've always wondered about: the percentages they give in weather reports, for likelihood of rain. Does '30% chance of rain' mean that they estimate a 30% chance of getting any rain, or that they think it'll rain for 30% of the day, or what?
Yes, it means 30% chance of any rain today, and as Cosmos points out it's based primarily on historical data: 30% of historical situations significantly like this have head rain. And since the estimates update based on new data, they're practically tautologous.
I don't have a reference for that though.