gworley comments on No Universal Probability Space - Less Wrong
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Comments (44)
Just because you don't care about measuring other probabilities in the space doesn't mean that you can ignore it. If you don't know what the space is, it's like taking a blank piece of paper, putting an "x" on it, and saying that's where the treasure is buried: not only do you not know the territory, but you don't even know enough about the map for that "x" to have any value.
I think you're giving too much credit here. Go out and slip into casual conversation a remark about the probability of something and see how people treat it. You could be right about the human brain, though, and maybe it's really a First World problem created by "numerical literacy" education in schools to try to help people read the news. Every time they hear a percentage they think of the frequentist interpretation they learned in school.