gwern comments on A possible solution to pascals mugging. - Less Wrong

-19 Post author: staticIP 13 October 2012 12:00AM

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Comment author: gwern 13 October 2012 12:44:06AM 5 points [-]

If anyone accepts a pascals mugging style trade off with full knowledge of the problem, then I will slowly torture to death 3^^^^3 sentient minds. Or a suitably higher number if they include a higher (plausible, from my external viewpoint) number. Rest assured I can at least match their raw computing power from where I am.

I go for a walk and meet a mugger. He hears about your precommitment and says, 'ah well, I know what reward I can offer you which both overcomes your expressed probability that I will pay of 1/3^^^^3 and also the threat of -3^^^^3: I will offer you not 3^^^^3 but 3^^^^^^3! If you will simply multiply out the expected value and then subtract staticIP's threat, you will find this is a very lucrative deal for you!'

I conclude his logic is unimpeachable and the net expected value so vast I would be a fool to not give him $5, and promptly do so.