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Epiphany comments on A possible solution to pascals mugging. - Less Wrong
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This solution doesn’t work. Why? Because I pledge that if anyone fails to accept a “Pascal’s Mugging style trade-off with full knowledge of the problem, then I will slowly torture to death 3^^^^3 sentient minds”. I’ve just canceled out your pledge.
You could say all your allies take the same pledge as you, and you have more allies than me, but that’s getting too far into the practicalities of our lives and too far away from a general solution. A general solution can’t assume that the person considering whether to accept a Mugging will have heard either of our pledges, so the person would be unable to take those pledges into account for their decision.
I don’t know the actual solution to Pascal’s Mugging myself. I’ve pasted my outline-form notes on it so far into a reply to this comment, in case they’re useful.
You're not thinking big enough. If anyone ever accepts a Pascal's mugging again, my fuzzy celery God will execute a worse Pascal's mugging than any other in existence no matter what the original Pascal's mugging is.
P.S. You'll never find out what muggings fuzzy celery God executes because they're always unpredictable. This makes them impossible to disprove.
(My brother always hated having fights like this with me.)
If we have two gods, one claiming that if I do X, they'll mug me, and one claiming that if I don't do X they'll mug me, well I'm probably going to believe the god that isn't fuzzy and celery...
Well that's making the wrong choice, buddy. Other Gods are useless against fuzzy celery God because fuzzy celery God can transform itself at will into the Most Believable God. Don't think of fuzzy celery God as a piece of fuzzy celery. Fuzzy celery God is nothing like that. If an old wise man is the most compelling God-form for you, fuzzy celery God looks like an old wise man. If benevolent Gods are more credible to you, fuzzy celery God becomes benevolent. No matter what Pascal's mugging the person wants to accept, fuzzy celery God will always take on the appearance and traits of the most believable God that the person can conceive of.