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Larks comments on Open Thread, October 16-31, 2012 - Less Wrong
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I'm planning on doing a presentation on cognitive biases and/or behavioral economics (Kahneman et al) in front of a group of university students (20-30 people). I want to start with a short experiment / demonstration (or two) that will demonstrate to the students that they are, in fact, subject to some bias or failure in decision making. I'm looking for suggestion on what experiment I can perform within 30 minutes (can be longer if it's an interesting and engaging task, e.g. a game), the important thing is that the thing being demonstrated has to be relevant to most people's everyday lives. Any ideas?
I also want to mention that I can get assistants for the experiment if needed.
Edit: Has anyone at CFAR or at rationality minicamps done something similar? Who can I contact to inquire about this?
Get people to give 90% confidence intervals on 10 questions, and then at the end ask
"Ok, so who got all 10 within their intervals. 9? That's what you should have got... ok, 8? Still no-one? Ok, how about 7?"
90% might not be the best number for demonstrating the idea of a confidence interval. It's too close to 100%. There's not much room to be underconfident. What about 50% confidence intervals?
Have you tried it? I have, and I can tell you most people I tried it on are over-confident when asked for 90% intervals.