But why does dealing with intelligent design increase your probability in the alternative? Why were you assigning weight to intelligent design?
Not much - it increased slightly when I saw it proposed, and decreased precipitously when I saw it refuted.
This isn't meant to be nitpicky. I suppose the question behind the question is this: When dividing up probability mass for X, how do you allot P(~X)? Do you try divvying it up amongst competing theories or do you simply assign it to ~X?
Well, it has to be divvied up. It's just that there are so many theories encompassed in ~X that it is not easy to calculate the contribution to any specific theory except when the network is pretty clear already.
Well, it has to be divvied up.
Not to be a chore, but can you explain why?
Followup to: The Most Important Thing You Learned
What's the most frequently useful thing you've learned on OB - not the most memorable or most valuable, but the thing you use most often? What influences your behavior, factors in more than one decision? Please give a concrete example if you can. This isn't limited to archetypally "mundane" activities: if your daily life involves difficult research or arguing with philosophers, go ahead and describe that too.