steven0461 comments on Hardened Problems Make Brittle Models - Less Wrong
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While I don't often say this, that question doesn't strike me as an ethical question. It seems to turn entirely on questions of what steps would be most effective to producing the desired effect.
When primitives performed human sacrifice to ensure the sun will rise tomorrow, they were not mistaken about ethics - they were mistaken about astronomy.
I disagree - it's usually pretty obvious. While I usually prefer not to talk in terms of "right moral decisions", acting in accord with ethics gets you exactly what you'd expect from it. Ethics specifies criteria for determining what one has most reason to do or want. While what that ends up being is still a matter of disagreement, here are a couple of examples:
consequentialist: do whatever maximizes overall net utility. If you do something to make someone feel good, and you make them feel bad instead, you get immediate feedback as direct and profound as catching a baseball.
virtue ethics: act as the good man does. If you go around acting in a vicious manner, it's obvious to all around that you're nothing like a good person.
Entirely? It depends on things like how we should weigh the present vs future generations, how we should weigh rich vs poor, whether we're working under ethical constraints other than pure utility maximization. All those are ethical questions.
If the probability of the sun rising tomorrow is something else than a unit step function of the number of humans sacrificed, ethics comes in again. Do you sacrifice victim number 386,264 for an added 0.0001% chance of sunrise? Ethical question.
I'm not sure who the 'we' here are. Ethical questions are questions about what I should do. I see no reason to 'weigh' rich or poor people, or different generations.
There are political questions about what sorts of institutions should be set up, and those things might address collectives of people or whether the poor get to count for more than the rich. But while in some sense 'what political system should I prefer' is an ethical question, the relevant questions to analyze the problem of what institutions to set up are political.