every non-rationalist suddenly turns into a perfect Bayesian reasoning machine or goes broke trying

I'm unconvinced (even making allowances for the fact that you're probably exaggerating for vividity). I can think of plenty of things I've done or failed to do whose expected impact on my career (whether considered solely as a source of income, or considering the other things about it that I care about) has been negative. Akrasia, short-sightedness, lack of imagination, plain old stupidity, etc., don't go away just because there's a pile of money on the line; not for me, anyway. Do you have evidence that the rest of the world does much better?