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Stuart_Armstrong comments on Naive TDT, Bayes nets, and counterfactual mugging - Less Wrong
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Incidentally, if you vote yes on this, don't vote anonymously! You want to proclaim your decision to any partial Omega's out there...
Hey, the real Omega is supposed to not be lying, right? If I were to doubt that, given the extremely low prior of Omega submitting me to this test (compared to a fellow human trying to con me), then the math would probably tell me that the lottery has better odds.