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CCC comments on Proofs, Implications, and Models - Less Wrong
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If you are a simulation, then the kind of consciousness you think you have is by definition simulable. Right down to your simulated scepticism that it is possible.
My disagreements with (3) are that (1) is not certain to imply sufficient computing resources for such a project, and (2) is pure speculation not supported by compelling reasons for our descendants to do it.
I agree that if (1) is true to the extent that such enormous resources were available and not needed for anything more important, and (2) is true to the extent that > 10^6 such total planetary simulations were carried out, then that would qualify for (3) being true as stated. ( 1.0 - 1.0e-6 is acceptable for me as "almost certainly"). I just think the premises are bullshit, that's all.
Note that a proper simulation in step (2) would include a number of simulations of simulations, and each of those would include a number of simulations of simulations of simulations. It's not merely the number of simulations that the base-reality does that's important; it's also the number of layers of simulation within that.
For example, with only three layers of simulation, if each humanity (simulated or not) attempts to simulate its own past just 100 times, then that will result in 10^6 third-layer simulations (1010100 simulations altogether).
The problem with recursive simulations is that the amount of available computronium decreases exponentially with level.