Morendil comments on Prediction market sequence requested - Less Wrong

30 [deleted] 26 October 2012 10:59AM

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Comment author: Morendil 26 October 2012 12:11:53PM 16 points [-]

Care to at least take a stab at outlining what should be in it? Nate Silver's book has some discussion of prediction markets, including

  • how prediction markets arise from Bayesian thinking
  • the efficient market hypothesis in various strengths
  • limitations of prediction markets (e.g. liquidity issues, manipulations, transaction costs)
  • markets and irrationality ("irrational exuberance")

What else should such a sequence cover?

Can you point to some examples of those "recent arguments" you've seen?

I've mentioned prediction markets to a few people in the context of learning how to make well calibrated forecasts, and the reaction is generally "ugh, gambling! no way!".

Comment author: predictotron 06 July 2015 12:53:20AM 0 points [-]

I came here looking for some information on implementing a prediction market at work. I happen to already have Nate's book, so I'll have to check that out. Thanks!

Comment author: Morendil 06 July 2015 11:42:25AM 0 points [-]

Cool! Where do you work?

For a while now I've also taken part in the Good Judgment Project prediction contests, since Season 2 as a "super-forecaster". I've scaled back my involvement this year for various reasons. But I do know that they're working on a commercial offering; depending on what you're looking to do, this may or may not be relevant to your efforts...