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MorganHouse comments on Epistemic vs. Instrumental Rationality: Case of the Leaky Agent - Less Wrong
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Comments (19)
In this situation, I would say that whatever you currently believe is the minimum, is the actual minimum. If you manage to convince yourself that a higher minimum is required, you have simply updated the variable.
This is a good point. I've clarified the example a bit to address this.
My opinion is that if you convincingly told yourself a lie about something like this it stops being a lie. As best as I can tell, this is the same thing you are saying but with different words.