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Daniel_Burfoot comments on Original Research on Less Wrong - Less Wrong
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Comments (47)
That's for experimental statistical reports. Trying to do math runs into a different set of dangers.
You can easily beat "Most published research findings are false" by reporting Bayesian likelihood ratios instead of "statistical significance", or even just keeping statistical significance and demanding p < .001 instead of the ludicrous p < .05. It should only take <2.5 times as many subjects to detect a real effect at p < .001 instead of p < .05 and the proportion of false findings would go way down immediately. That's what current grantmakers and journals would ask for if they cared.
But then people could only publish 1/50 as many papers!
I had to do a double-take before I realized that this probably wasn't a serious attempt at a counterargument. I'm still not quite convinced that it isn't. Poe's Law and related things.
Yes, it does seem like some peoples' true rejections might turn out to be less opportunities for appeal to public and gaining popularity / funding.