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gwern comments on Checking Kurzweil's track record - Less Wrong
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I don't think it's true. I think it would be pretty easy to survey people and include some questions checking for technological awareness and Kurzweil awareness, and quietly discarding any results from people low on the former or high on the latter.
I mean, you could do it on Amazon Mechanical Turk! Such people are pretty technically sophisticated to be on Mechanical Turk in the first place, psychologists use it for surveys all the time, and a dismayingly large fraction of Turkers have college educations. It'd work fine.
We'll look into the Mechanical Turk angle...
http://www.kurzweilai.net/predictions/download.php
This contains all his predictions, it shouldn't be hard to verify them.
Self-assessment isn't a good idea. And I'm really not impressed by that one (though I shouldn't comment directly at this stage).
But we will see. I'll wait till I have all the data in.