Abd comments on Rationality Quotes November 2012 - Less Wrong

6 [deleted] 06 November 2012 10:38PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 16 November 2012 04:51:21PM -1 points [-]

No one said it was genetic.

People always assume that acknowledgeing a trait in a person requires you to have an explanation for it. And then they note that all possible explanations are politically controverisal, so they conclude that the trait does not actually exist. This is bad logic, as far as I can tell.

The fact is, race is a good predictor of things like civilization, intelligence, violence, etc. I offer no explanations.

Comment author: Abd 17 November 2012 02:00:31AM *  1 point [-]

The fact is, race is a good predictor of things like civilization, intelligence, violence, etc. I offer no explanations.

Eh? What is this thing you call "race," Earth Monkey?

We used to think the answer was obvious. You know, it's obvious what "race" someone is, isn't it? Until you start to look at the details.

Race is a cultural convention. There is a science of population genetics, and it isn't about "race." Rather, people use population genetics to infer the social marker called "race."

I adopted an African girl. What "race" is she? What determines this? She has tribal markings on her eyes -- or the scars from tribal medicine for conjunctivitis, hard to tell -- but the markings are characteristic of her region and tribe, so someone who knows could tell where she comes from, as to the region.

I once had a friend tell me that my Chinese daughter was, of course, going to be more intelligent than the Ethiopian girl. The Chinese daughter is no slouch, intellectually, but her younger sister is definitely smart as hell. My friend was a racist. Lots of people are racist. That is, they believe that race is a biological or even a "spiritual" reality. He wasn't being mean, he was just being ignorant.

Comment author: Vaniver 17 November 2012 03:17:18AM *  4 points [-]

I adopted an African girl. What "race" is she? What determines this?

What determines it? Ancestry. Race is basically a way of asking "who were your ancestors?" and accepting a blurry answer because, well, each person has a lot of ancestors! That version of race is obviously a biological reality, because people have different ancestries, even going back long distances, and the ancestry distribution can be geographically plotted. If you go back thirty generations for me, I would need to have about a billion distinct ancestors for there to be no inbreeding; the entire world didn't have that many people! Europe, the probable source for most of my ancestry, only had about 50 million people thirty generations ago, and even then it's unlikely that all of them are my ancestors- for one, many of them didn't have any children! I'd estimate somewhere less than 10% of the total world population at any point since 1000 AD is in my ancestry, and the distribution of their contribution to my ancestry is pretty localized. It's probable there's many people out there who share none of my ancestry for a full thirty generations back, and there's one who (probably) shares it completely.

Knowing she was adopted from Africa, odds are good that she's mostly African. That's only one step more informative than "human," since it only gives you the archaic racial category- Negroid- which tells you as much as "Caucasoid" or "Mongoloid." Ethnicity would give a much narrower picture- about one person in six is African, but only about one person in four thousand is Gurage.

Adding on the data that she's Ethiopian muddies the picture- due to its northeastern position, Ethiopia has been the site of significant mixing, and there's quite a bit of ethnic diversity: the primary ethnicity, Oromo, is only a third of the population- your Chinese daughter, though, most likely has significant Han ancestry (92% of the population of mainland China).

So, using the archaic terms and assuming she's from one of the more prevalent ethnicities, your daughter probably has about 60% Caucasoid ancestry and 40% Negroid ancestry.

I once had a friend tell me that my Chinese daughter was, of course, going to be more intelligent than the Ethiopian girl.

So, good IQ estimates in Africa are generally hard to come by, but Ethiopia supposedly has the world's lowest average IQ, at 63 (administered in 1991, sample size of 250), and China is estimated to have an average IQ of 100. Working off that data (and assuming both groups have a standard deviation of 15), that gives a 96% chance that the Chinese daughter is smarter. Now, the Ethiopian data is spotty, especially the normality assumption- one of the pitfalls of historic IQ testing is that 0 scores are treated as 0s, dragging down the average, instead of an separate number of "people who didn't understand the concept of the test." It's also not clear what selection effects adoption has; children that get adopted out are likely to not be representative of the country as a whole, and it's hard to say if that would be a positive or negative effect. If we use the African American average IQ of 85 instead of the estimated Ethiopian averaged IQ, and still assume that we should use the Chinese average, we get a 76% chance that the Chinese daughter is cleverer.

Of course, given that they're your daughters, there's not much reason to guess; you could just get them both tested, which would be way cheaper and more informative than sponsoring another test of Ethiopian national IQ.

Comment author: Abd 17 November 2012 02:50:26PM -1 points [-]

I adopted an African girl. What "race" is she? What determines this?

What determines it? Ancestry. Race is basically a way of asking "who were your ancestors?" and accepting a blurry answer because, well, each person has a lot of ancestors!

That is not what "race" means when people use the word. Race is a division of humanity into categories. Who determines the categories? Do those categories naturally occur? On what does the "race" category depend? Can "race" be identified visually? Can it be genetically determined?

Yes, if you divide people up into "races," or into geographical population groups, and study their genetics, you can find statistical significance, but the two divisions will produce differing evaluations for individuals.

The classic way to identify someone's "race" involves identifying one's own group visually (and sometimes behaviorally, perhaps through dialect or language), and then lumping together those who don't seem to match "my race" into other groups. That is why someone who is "mixed race" will be lumped into the "other group," until the mixture becomes small enough to not be visible. How people perceive themselves is irrelevant to this process.

"Race" is a racist concept, naturally. The word "racist" is hot, and gets mixed up with racial chauvinism, but that's distracting. I use "racism" to refer to the belief in race as an objective reality.

That version of race is obviously a biological reality, because people have different ancestries, even going back long distances, and the ancestry distribution can be geographically plotted.

I wrote that population genetics was a reality. Race is not. It's arbitrary, and race is not scientifically defined. The conclusion is a non sequitur. Race has been totally discredited academically, and that's not just political correctness.

Knowing she was adopted from Africa, odds are good that she's mostly African.

Odds are entirely that she is African, i.e., she was born in Africa. I know that her grandparents were born in Africa, in her tribal region. Beyond that, I don't know. Probably it goes back further, but there are always strays.

If her ancestry plot maintains "African" location, say entirely, back, say, 20 generations, does that mean that she is racially "African"? I hope you'd know that this could give results that might seem preposterous to those who depend on visual identification of "race."

The basic question is being ignored. How is "race" identified? As used, my "race" does not depend on where I was born. It depends on ... what? Where someone else was born? Who, specifically? What lumps all these people together? And separates them from others, who might look quite the same?

That's only one step more informative than "human," since it only gives you the archaic racial category- Negroid- which tells you as much as "Caucasoid" or "Mongoloid."

"Archaic racial category." So race is being used to define race? Those are just as you stated, "racial" categories, which assumes some identity based on ... what?

Ethnicity would give a much narrower picture- about one person in six is African, but only about one person in four thousand is Gurage.

Adding on the data that she's Ethiopian muddies the picture- due to its northeastern position, Ethiopia has been the site of significant mixing, and there's quite a bit of ethnic diversity: the primary ethnicity, Oromo, is only a third of the population- your Chinese daughter, though, most likely has significant Han ancestry (92% of the population of mainland China).

Lucky guess about my Chinese daughter. The one-child policy impacts Han Chinese the most.

However, "Ethiopian" tells you almost nothing about "race." Let's start with this: Each tribal grouping in Ethiopia, by default, considers itself to be very different from the others. There are over seventy such groupings in Ethiopia, if we mark them by language.

So, using the archaic terms and assuming she's from one of the more prevalent ethnicities, your daughter probably has about 60% Caucasoid ancestry and 40% Negroid ancestry.

Unlikely, in fact. She's from the Kambata-Timbaro Tribal Region, her native language was Kambatigna. It's a minor ethnicity, there are maybe a few hundred thousand Kambata.

In the U.S., she is readily identified by people as "Black." She doesn't look "Ethiopian" (which is popularly known through high-Arab ancestry general appearance). Is "Black" a race? What defines it?

I once had a friend tell me that my Chinese daughter was, of course, going to be more intelligent than the Ethiopian girl.

So, good IQ estimates in Africa are generally hard to come by, but Ethiopia supposedly has the world's lowest average IQ, at 63 (administered in 1991, sample size of 250), and China is estimated to have an average IQ of 100. Working off that data (and assuming both groups have a standard deviation of 15), that gives a 96% chance that the Chinese daughter is smarter.

Was that a test administered racially, or was it according to how and where the child was raised and tested?

What kind of intelligence was measured? Intelligence generally confers survival value, but the form of intelligence selected shifts with environment.

Garbage in, garbage out.

Of course, given that they're your daughters, there's not much reason to guess; you could just get them both tested, which would be way cheaper and more informative than sponsoring another test of Ethiopian national IQ.

Ethiopian "national IQ" is totally irrelevant. Somehow, Ethiopia, with that supposedly low IQ, managed, almost uniquely in Africa, to avoid extended outside control, with an ancient and literate culture.

What I personally know is that, possibly contrary to stereotypes, the Ethiopian girl is highly competitive, she stars at whatever she does, the Chinese girl -- raised here since she was under a year old -- is shyer and suffers from the shadow of her younger sister. Both girls have no difficulty figuring out how to do what they want on computers. I have no confidence that IQ tests would tell me much of value, though at some point both girls will be tested to determine if they belong in "gifted" programs.

My racist friend knew nothing about my daughter's ethnicity, he was judging entirely on "African," based on his early experience with "Blacks" on the street in America (are they "African"?) , which wasn't, shall we say, "positive."

Comment author: [deleted] 20 November 2012 02:31:52AM 4 points [-]

Sorry I ddin't read all of your wall of text yet, but I find it fishy that you're allowed to redefine "racism" to mean "non-hating acknowledgement of differences due to ancestry" but Vaniver isn't allowed to use race in the normal sense of "what's ur ancestry?".

Comment author: [deleted] 17 November 2012 09:35:50PM *  1 point [-]

It's probable there's many people out there who share none of my ancestry for a full thirty generations back,

Yep. The most recent common ancestor of living humans lived at least a couple millennia (i.e. about seventy generations) ago. (EDIT: I'm not fully convinced that that implies that for any time t later than that, there's at least one with you no ancestry at time t. I'm too tired to trust my cognitive abilities right now.)

and there's one who (probably) shares it completely.

Do you have any reason in particular to suspect that you and your sibling may have different biological fathers, or is the “probably” a 1-is-not-a-probability self-nitpick?

Comment author: Vaniver 17 November 2012 11:47:45PM 1 point [-]

Do you have any reason in particular to suspect that you and your sibling may have different biological fathers, or is the “probably” a 1-is-not-a-probability self-nitpick?

It's not "1-is-not-a-probability" so much as it is "the base rate of this is not 0"; there's also the chance that I was switched at birth (hospitals are much better at avoiding this now than they have been in the past). If my family signs up for 23andMe, then the probability will either shoot up towards 1 or drop down to negligible, but until then I'm going with the base rate.

Comment author: [deleted] 18 November 2012 11:11:23AM 0 points [-]

Really during your life you haven't encountered much net evidence towards either direction shifting your probability assignment away from the base rate, e.g. how much you look like your parents, whether you share some uncommon medical condition with either of them, blood type, etc.?

Comment author: Vaniver 18 November 2012 06:06:14PM *  0 points [-]

I have very little expertise in quantifying the effect of that evidence, and in the aggregate it doesn't seem strong enough to make the probability negligible or large.

The strategic concerns here are also amusing to ponder. (There's several reasons that 23andMe shows you 2nd and higher cousins with no prompting, but wants your approval before they show you first cousins.) The more one suspects being swapped at birth, the more important it is to find one's birth family for health prediction. But, I've had my SNPs read, which I imagine screens off much of the benefit of knowing family history for medical conditions. It's also less damaging to the existing family structure: most people who learn they were swapped at birth maintain their relationship with the parents that raised them, and also gain some sort of relationship with their genetic parents.

If you suspect infidelity, though, then the picture is very different. Again, learning your birth father tells you something about health, and may be a valuable social relationship (for one, they may not have any other children; in the swap case, there's someone else in the mirror of your situation); it's probably tremendously destructive to your current family arrangement, though.

Comment author: [deleted] 17 November 2012 09:14:15PM *  0 points [-]

Now, the Ethiopian data is spotty,

It's also not clear what selection effects adoption has;

Also, probably the effects of nurture contribute to keeping their average IQ that low; it seems unlikely to me that the fact that the average IQ of African Americans is 22 points higher is entirely due to the European genetic admixture in the latter. (EDIT: And I hadn't even noticed you mentioned Ethiopians have lots of Caucasoid ancestry too!)

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 21 November 2012 12:05:12AM *  1 point [-]

Eh? What is this thing you call "race," Earth Monkey?

Genetically differentiated human populations defined by phenotype.

"Race is a cultural convention."

A quote from wikipedia:

"Forensic physical anthropologist and professor George W. Gill has said that the idea that race is only skin deep "is simply not true, as any experienced forensic anthropologist will affirm" and "Many morphological features tend to follow geographic boundaries coinciding often with climatic zones. This is not surprising since the selective forces of climate are probably the primary forces of nature that have shaped human races with regard not only to skin color and hair form but also the underlying bony structures of the nose, cheekbones, etc. (For example, more prominent noses humidify air better.)" While he can see good arguments for both sides, the complete denial of the opposing evidence "seems to stem largely from socio-political motivation and not science at all". He also states that many biological anthropologists see races as real yet "not one introductory textbook of physical anthropology even presents that perspective as a possibility. In a case as flagrant as this, we are not dealing with science but rather with blatant, politically motivated censorship".

Comment author: RobbBB 21 November 2012 12:22:06AM *  1 point [-]

The input is the claim 'Race is a cultural convention.' You output the interpretation: 'None of the phenotypic variations associated with any racial schema are physically real; they are hallucinations or figments.' Given how transparently ridiculous the assertion is, one must at least take a moment to pause and reconsider whether the anthropologists' claim is really what you take it to be.

Perhaps what is being denied is not the existence of morphological variation between human populations, but rather the conceptualization of these differences under the traditional concept of Race, with its assumptions of discreteness and of other markers of cultural and bio-diversity strictly mapping on to a small set of physiognomic markers. Perhaps what is also being asserted is that the precise boundaries between races, and how large or small a 'race' gets to be, is culturally constructed and varies across different groups possessing 'race'-like categories. Is it more likely that anthropologists are speaking somewhat loosely and infelicitously, or that they think the existence of darker and lighter skins in different parts of the world is a Grand Alien Conspiracy?

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 21 November 2012 01:25:39AM *  2 points [-]

Given how I might have said/believed something similar myself just a couple years back, I think I know what is meant. You get a photo of Colin Powell and he was about light-skinned as Bush -- so since different people of the same skin-hue are one called 'white' and the other 'black', one thinks it might the division may be entirely a cultural artifact.

Also there's no single characteristic which doesn't fluctuate gradually across populations -- so any grouping seems again entirely arbitrary.

But a visual that got me to understand the above view was too-simplistic was this graph here at Lewontin's argument and criticism. Though any one characteristic wouldn't suffice to divide humanity meaningfully into races, several characterics taken together in can form clusters...

So such groupings are in fact meaningful.

Comment author: RobbBB 21 November 2012 02:01:50AM 1 point [-]

If you used to believe this yourself, then maybe you can explain to me what you mean(t) by 'entirely a cultural artifact.' Did you think that the people in question didn't have different skin tones? That skin tone isn't a genetic trait? That there was no correlation between a racial grouping and any phenotypic or genetic marker, like skin color? That genetic relatedness is confabulated in a grand game of make-believe?

"there's no single characteristic which doesn't fluctuate gradually across populations" - No, some traits have reached fixation in a population, or are totally absent. But I take your point. It's still understandable that categories predating our modern, sophisticated notions of genetic variation would be controversial in their attempted modern reimaginings.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 21 November 2012 03:18:02AM *  3 points [-]

Did you think that the people in question didn't have different skin tones?

Colin Powell did not have a different skin tone than George W. Bush; yes -- no categorization based on skin-color would actually put Colin Powell in a different category than Bush, while putting him in the same category with Condoleeza Rice: Relevant photo.

And whole groups that Americans called non-white (like Middle-easterners) looked likewise pretty white to me.

That there was no correlation between a racial grouping and any phenotypic or genetic marker, like skin color?

There was correlation with physical characterics obviously -- much like you could say that Swedes are more often blonde, but that the actual lines drawn around the category didn't really have anything to do with physical characteristics -- same way that Swedish citizenship correlates with blondness but isn't defined by blondness.

Comment author: RobbBB 22 November 2012 02:41:13AM *  2 points [-]

Colin Powell did not have a different skin tone than George W. Bush; yes -- no categorization based on skin-color would actually put Colin Powell in a different category than Bush, while putting him in the same category with Condoleeza Rice

I've seen the photo. So your claim is that anthropologists, like yesteryou, once believed that 100% of 'black' people had darker skin than 100% of 'white' people, with zero overlap? This seems very implausible.

And whole groups that Americans called non-white (like Middle-easterners) looked likewise pretty white to me.

That's no coincidence. American authorities typically group most Middle Easterners with Europeans as 'Caucasians.'

the actual lines drawn around the category didn't really have anything to do with physical characteristics -- same way that Swedish citizenship correlates with blondness but isn't defined by blondness.

But being of Swedish descent does have biological meaning and significance, albeit to a lesser degree than being of African descent. So what can be meant by the claim that race is 'merely' like being Swedish? Is it merely a fuzzy quantitative shift, not a categorical disagreement about what 'race' is or how it fits into the natural world?

Allow me to attempt to rationally reconstruct what the younger you and the straw-anthropologist believed. Based on the evidence that changed your mind, I gather that your old view was not that racial distinctions were nonexistent, but that they were biologically superficial. The obvious phenotypic variations very nearly exhausted the distinctness of each racial group. So when you advocate racialism, what you're really trying to draw attention to is that race is more than skin deep, that there are many many genetic traits, some very significant, that break down along racial lines of various sorts. And this is indeed an important point, though framing it as a dispute over whether 'races' are 'real' is, to put it mildly, misleading.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 22 November 2012 03:08:37PM *  2 points [-]

So your claim is that anthropologists, like yesteryou, once believed that 100% of 'black' people had darker skin than 100% of 'white' people, with zero overlap?

I don't know about anthropologists. I thought I explained that my yesterme saw the opposite of what you just said: saw that some people labelled 'black' had skins as light (or almost as light) as 'white' people. So I saw the dividing line between 'black' and 'white' to be utterly arbitrary, a line arbitrarily drawn in some continuum, and which best seemed to identify cultural not biological differences.

Keep in mind that my yesterme was a Greek boy, and had no occasion to have known about e.g. Afro-textured hair or different nose structures, etc. or any other collection of physical characteristics that together could form a cluster.

gather that your old view was not that racial distinctions were nonexistent, but that they were biologically superficial.

No, I'm not talking about mere superficiality, nor about how insignificant or significant the traits were. I'm talking about an utterly arbitrary line drawn between populations of people. As if someone had arbitrarily said that the numbers >72 are the "orange" numbers and the numbers <72 are the "purple" numbers.

With only one trait in question to divide the races, this judgement of mine would have remained valid -- no matter if it's something as insignificant as skin-color or as significant as IQ.

It's the combination of more than one trait (e.g. skin-color AND hair-texture AND nose-shape) that makes racial visual identification a classification of actual observed clusters in the human species -- again REGARDLESS of whether the traits are "significant" or "superficial" or "important" or whatever.

Comment author: [deleted] 22 November 2012 03:18:42PM *  1 point [-]

And whole groups that Americans called non-white (like Middle-easterners) looked likewise pretty white to me.

Middle Easterners' skins do look noticeably darker than those of typical native English speakers of European ancestry, to me. But then again, so do those of certain (but not all)¹ Italians, whom I don't think any sizeable number of Americans would call non-white.


  1. ISTM that there's much larger variation in skin colours among Italians than among northern Europeans or among Middle Easterners. (All the people in this picture are Italian with no sizeable foreign admixture that I know of except in one case, and none is albino or anything like that.)
Comment author: [deleted] 23 November 2012 01:33:13AM 2 points [-]

...and seven hours after I post this, I see a friend of mine whose skin is almost as pale as that of a typical Irishwoman and I remember that her parents are from the Middle East. God, I am full of crap certain times.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 21 November 2012 09:11:39PM 1 point [-]

The input is the claim 'Race is a cultural convention.' You output the interpretation: 'None of the phenotypic variations associated with any racial schema are physically real; they are hallucinations or figments.' Given how transparently ridiculous the assertion is, one must at least take a moment to pause and reconsider whether the anthropologists' claim is really what you take it to be.

The problem is that when asked to justify that statement 'Race is a cultural convention' anthropologists in interpret it in the way you describe in your second paragraph, but they than proceed to use it in arguments as if it means 'None of the phenotypic variations (except possibly skin color) associated with any racial schema are physically real; they are hallucinations or figments'.

Comment author: RobbBB 22 November 2012 02:28:15AM 0 points [-]

That's extremely strange and surprising, if true. Can you provide an example of this?