DanArmak comments on Rationality Quotes November 2012 - Less Wrong

6 [deleted] 06 November 2012 10:38PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 19 November 2012 03:55:26AM 4 points [-]

Why? What's the mean survival time and QoL for people who need a transplant but don't get one?

The information is available, but takes time and work to interpret. I gave a link with data. From that page, you can get to http://publications.milliman.com/research/health-rr/pdfs/2008-us-organ-tisse-RR4-1-08.pdf which provides much more detail. Please consult it, and if you need more, I'm available starting at $100/hr.

Point is, these discussions are kind of pointless without quantitative context. If you can give someone 80 years of healthy lifespan for a dollar, few people would object. If you can give someone one day of agony for a billion dollars, few people would support. Most medical interventions fall somewhere in between. Vaccinations are closer to the former, organ transplants closer to the latter.

Then by killing the donor, you get two kidneys and twice as much RoI. Is it worth the death yet?

That's not how RoI works.

Comment author: DanArmak 19 November 2012 03:17:08PM 0 points [-]

That's not how RoI works.

Why not? The investment here being the death of the donor.

Comment author: IainM 19 November 2012 03:47:05PM *  9 points [-]

The benefit is doubled in the second case, but the investment is much larger (obviously), so RoI is not doubled. In fact, the investment is more than doubled (you have to pay for two transplants instead of one, as well as killing someone), so the RoI plummets.

Comment author: DanArmak 19 November 2012 06:32:45PM 0 points [-]

Thanks, it's clear to me now. It seems obvious but I didn't understand it correctly the first time around.

Comment author: [deleted] 19 November 2012 04:00:08PM 3 points [-]

What IainM said. RoI is the ratio return/investment. The return is doubled, the investment is (substantially) more than doubled, thus the ratio decreases.