Why is there such a large statistical "arbitrage" opportunity on Intrade right now? I am not all too familiar with prediction markets but Obama re-elected at $6.61 ask at current prices and Obama is predicted to be 84% likely to win seems like a large enough spread to make this a smart bet.
The Economist writes:
...Although Intrade, the most widely cited prediction market, is fairly kind to Mr Romney and shows him with a 33% chance of victory, tight legal restrictions on deposits to the site have made it very difficult for Americans to wager there. That makes it very thinly traded and unreliable, since bets of just a few thousand dollars can move the market price substantially. The real money laid on the election goes to bookmakers, who uniformly see Mr Obama as an overwhelming favourite. Pinnacle Sports in Las Vegas shows him with a 77.5% lik
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, even in Discussion, it goes here.