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gwern comments on Open Thread, November 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong
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Really want to recommend InTrade to LWers next election cycle. I put in $2000 and am up about $1200. Obviously if you follow politics intensively (or Nate Silver) you can make lots of smart bets against people betting on what they want or on the popular media narrative. But the markets were illiquid enough in this cycle that you can grind out more modest profits on arbitrage. For instance, even after it was clear Romney was the nominee, I could pick up 1 share Romney win + 1 share Obama win for about $8.20 and one of those bets was going to pay out $10.
How much did you pay in fees to Intrade?
Nothing. I put my money in by check (10 day processing lag but no fees) and will withdraw it by wire transfer (no fees on InTrade's end, last time I checked, and, at my bank, incoming wire transfers are free). InTrade just made money on the float from me.
The fee is $20 for processing a wire withdrawal and 4 Euros for a check withdrawal.
Looks like that changed at some pt. Ah well, I've got plenty of margin for a 4 euro fee.
InTrade doesn't charge fees anymore and just makes their money off the float? Hm. Maybe my old verdict 'too expensive for small players' needs revising.
Their website suggests just a $5 monthly fee.
Ah, so it hasn't changed. That still makes long-term bets there infeasible for people with small bankrolls (I've believed Obama had 60% odds since well before the primaries, but I'd find it hard to profit on Intrade with as much as 5% of my tolerable investment disappearing each month...)