Open Thread, November 1-15, 2012

OpenThreadGuy

If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, even in Discussion, it goes here.

I made money at this too, but I'm starting to wonder whether it's morally superior to running a casino, or a lottery. I made thousands of dollars off of a pack of fools who bet with their hopes instead of the evidence, and at the time I felt very clever, but now...I don't know.

One way to think of it is: when you wager on Intrade because you think the price is inaccurate, are you more like

a pundit being paid to bloviate, cheerlead, and mislead ordinary people (one thinks of the more right-wing writers who up until election day were confidently predicting an Obama victory and trashing Silver or polls in general), who even if one's motives are pure still contribute to the blinding white noise of media and is wasting people's time and leaving behind false ideas, delusions, questionable datapoints etc.
or a polling firm who, while

... (read more)

2palladias14y

I think the high barriers to entry for the US crowd mean I'm unlikely to be betting against gambling addicts, who have much easier options. I'd assume that InTrade skews well-educated and well-off. They can afford to lose a few hundred dollars to me.

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Open Thread, November 1-15, 2012

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Open Thread, November 1-15, 2012

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