fezziwig comments on Open Thread, November 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 02 November 2012 02:11AM

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Comment author: fezziwig 07 November 2012 07:40:24PM 0 points [-]

I made money at this too, but I'm starting to wonder whether it's morally superior to running a casino, or a lottery. I made thousands of dollars off of a pack of fools who bet with their hopes instead of the evidence, and at the time I felt very clever, but now...I don't know.

Comment author: gwern 07 November 2012 09:22:05PM 4 points [-]

One way to think of it is: when you wager on Intrade because you think the price is inaccurate, are you more like

  1. a pundit being paid to bloviate, cheerlead, and mislead ordinary people (one thinks of the more right-wing writers who up until election day were confidently predicting an Obama victory and trashing Silver or polls in general), who even if one's motives are pure still contribute to the blinding white noise of media and is wasting people's time and leaving behind false ideas, delusions, questionable datapoints etc.
  2. or a polling firm who, while motivated by profit, still seeks to add in real data to the race and which profit is ethically justifiable by the value-added of better data about how the race is going
Comment author: Vaniver 08 November 2012 04:36:09PM 0 points [-]

one thinks of the more right-wing writers who up until election day were confidently predicting an Obama victory and trashing Silver or polls in general

I know Obama and Romney have similar political positions, but they aren't that hard to tell apart! :P

Comment author: gwern 08 November 2012 04:39:46PM *  2 points [-]

I dunno, all you monkeys look the same to me with your wrinkly skin and weird little noses and disturbingly lengthy forepaws.

...Not that there's anything wrong with looking like you could have bits snapped off you at any moment - I mean, my best friend is a monkey, you know? (We get along great, I bring him bananas every time I go over; he says they're a good source of potassium and fiber, and I suppose you guys'd know eh?)

Comment author: DaFranker 08 November 2012 05:30:29PM 0 points [-]

and disturbingly lengthy forepaws.

I'm somewhat amused that the focus is on the lengthy forepaws, when the aftpaws are distinctly longer in almost every specimen. ;)

Comment author: gwern 08 November 2012 05:41:45PM 3 points [-]

Sure they are longer, but you ever try snapping one of those thick boney aftpaws on a monkey? On second thought, don't answer that.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 08 November 2012 07:03:47PM 0 points [-]

Sadly, it's easier than we monkeys would prefer.

Comment author: palladias 07 November 2012 09:10:14PM 1 point [-]

I think the high barriers to entry for the US crowd mean I'm unlikely to be betting against gambling addicts, who have much easier options. I'd assume that InTrade skews well-educated and well-off. They can afford to lose a few hundred dollars to me.

Comment author: dbaupp 07 November 2012 10:11:00PM *  1 point [-]

I'm unlikely to be betting against gambling addicts,

Betting against US gambling addicts. There are gambling addicts all over the world.

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