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fezziwig comments on Open Thread, November 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong
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Really want to recommend InTrade to LWers next election cycle. I put in $2000 and am up about $1200. Obviously if you follow politics intensively (or Nate Silver) you can make lots of smart bets against people betting on what they want or on the popular media narrative. But the markets were illiquid enough in this cycle that you can grind out more modest profits on arbitrage. For instance, even after it was clear Romney was the nominee, I could pick up 1 share Romney win + 1 share Obama win for about $8.20 and one of those bets was going to pay out $10.
I made money at this too, but I'm starting to wonder whether it's morally superior to running a casino, or a lottery. I made thousands of dollars off of a pack of fools who bet with their hopes instead of the evidence, and at the time I felt very clever, but now...I don't know.
One way to think of it is: when you wager on Intrade because you think the price is inaccurate, are you more like
I know Obama and Romney have similar political positions, but they aren't that hard to tell apart! :P
I dunno, all you monkeys look the same to me with your wrinkly skin and weird little noses and disturbingly lengthy forepaws.
...Not that there's anything wrong with looking like you could have bits snapped off you at any moment - I mean, my best friend is a monkey, you know? (We get along great, I bring him bananas every time I go over; he says they're a good source of potassium and fiber, and I suppose you guys'd know eh?)
I'm somewhat amused that the focus is on the lengthy forepaws, when the aftpaws are distinctly longer in almost every specimen. ;)
Sure they are longer, but you ever try snapping one of those thick boney aftpaws on a monkey? On second thought, don't answer that.
Sadly, it's easier than we monkeys would prefer.
I think the high barriers to entry for the US crowd mean I'm unlikely to be betting against gambling addicts, who have much easier options. I'd assume that InTrade skews well-educated and well-off. They can afford to lose a few hundred dollars to me.
Betting against US gambling addicts. There are gambling addicts all over the world.