I think Hanson comes at this from the angle of "let's apply what's in our standard academic toolbox to this problem". I think there might be people who find this approach convincing who would skim over more speculative-sounding stuff, so I think that approach might be worth pursuing.
I really don't disagree with your analysis but I wonder which current academic discipline comes closest to being able to frame this kind of idea?
I've once again updated my list of forthcoming and desired articles on AI risk, which currently names 17 forthcoming articles and books about AGI risk, and also names 26 desired articles that I wish researchers were currently writing.
But I'd like to hear your suggestions, too. Which articles not already on the list as "forthcoming" or "desired" would you most like to see written, on the subject of AGI risk?
Book/article titles reproduced below for convenience...
Forthcoming
Desired